Erik, threw down a respectful challenge to Forrest while commenting on Jason Moran’s blog posting. Forrest was kind enough to respond. See below:
Nice post.
I think Forrest was guilty of his own criticism: “manipulate the facts to further their own goals.”
Sir – you asked for just one positive outcome of the Iraq war? I could list a hundred. Here are three that quickly come to mind: 1) Children received immunizations. 2) Schools were rebuilt and attendance is up 80%. 3) Corporate corruption has decreased. Whether or not these justify the war is not the point – the point is there are many instances of good that came from the action. Is your responsibility to tell us that the war was good or bad,or is it to present the facts and let us decide?
Sir – you said the last two administrations have lied about NSA’s collection. It’s absurd to think the NSA is monitoring every piece of information about us. My believe is that the truth in the NSA’s collection lies somewhere between what they tell us and what you believe. Please show me the magic database – in order for you to be so strongly opinionated that they are collecting everything, I’m assuming you’ve seen first hand this database? Again, I challenge you to show us the truth and allow us to decide based on facts if the U.S. has gone too far.
Thank you for a fun class. It was definitely a change of pace for us and I appreciate you upholding your promise at the beginning – no holds bar! I hope you view my post as the same. Best of luck in your new endeavor.
Cheers,
Erik
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Forrest’s reply:
Erik,
Allison sent your blog post for my review and comment.
First, thank you for the unvarnished challenge to a couple of the ideas I tossed out. I believe the more we challenge so-called “authorities” or “experts” to support their ideas with evidence, the clearer will be our own thinking.
That said, let me address the issues you raise with equal candor.
I understand you have a military background. My father was a Navy man, and I’ve spent some long months with our troops in war zones around the world. I don’t know if you were in Iraq or Afghanistan, but either way you are acutely aware of the sacrifices our uniformed men and women have made. You also know how hard so many of them have worked to help the Iraqi people.
I get it. My friendships with the men and women I’ve come to know and my respect for their service actually sharpens my criticism of the willingness of our leaders to place them in harm’s way for what I consider to be demonstrably bad reasons.
So in that spirit let me address some of your thoughts. You write:
“Sir – you asked for just one positive outcome of the Iraq war? I could list a hundred. Here are three that quickly come to mind: 1) Children received immunizations. 2) Schools were rebuilt and attendance is up 80%. 3) Corporate corruption has decreased. Whether or not these justify the war is not the point – the point is there are many instances of good that came from the action.”
I believe you have just committed the logical fallacy known as “post hoc ergo propter hoc.” Most commonly, this mistake is defined as thinking that since event Y followed in time event X, event X must have caused event Y. In other words, temporal succession implies causality.
For the sake of argument, let’s accept that some things are better now than before the US invaded. Does that mean things have improved because we waged this costly war? Could we not equally say that, 38 years after the end of the Viet Nam War, Vietnamese per capita income is dramatically higher. Would you therefore conclude the war did some good things? Not at all. In fact, there are a complex of factors that improve life after any war.
I submit that the Iraq War itself did not lead to the outcomes you admire and in fact impeded progress by such things as bombing key infrastructure, decimating civil order, and creating a situation where disease spread all too easily. Support for this claim comes from considerable independent analysis from, for instance, NGOs and specifically from my own visits to the country and discussions with various involved parties.
It is true numerous things have improved since the war, including school performance. This is largely because the US and Europe instituted draconian economic sanctions after the Gulf War. The sanctions caused enormous suffering in the populace but did not lead to Saddam’s ouster. In other words, we wound up punishing the people of Iraq for Saddam’s sins. Unintended consequences.
I argue the improvements you point to were a direct result of the lifting of economic sanctions and by massive economic support from Western nations. These changes and much more could have easily been accomplished without an illegal war that was waged under false pretenses and in violation of the Geneva Conventions. The war itself destabilized the region; left somewhere between 100K and 1M Iraqi dead and 4289 Americans KIA with an estimated >100K wounded; destroyed the country’s infrastructure (including a lot of schools that – you’re right – have mostly been rebuilt by now); stirred ethnic conflict that continues today; empowered Iran; and – well, to use your phrase, I “could list a hundred” deleterious results of this ill-conceived, horrifically managed war.
The Iraq War was quite simply the greatest military disaster since Viet Nam, and we continue to suffer the consequences. This in no way diminishes the great work of America’s soldiers, Marines, airmen/women, and sailors. Many have contributed greatly to Iraq’s return from ruin. It is the decisions of America’s leaders that failed them and caused great harm to Iraq and the region.
To be clear: the primary goals of the war were neither to eliminate WMD nor to “free” the Iraqi people from a terrible dictator. They were: to gain US corporate access to the last pristine, easily recoverable stores of sweet, light crude in the world; to establish a military platform from which the US could then launch initiate regime change in Syria and Iran; and to build a model of neoconservative economic thinking.
All of these efforts ended in disaster, although China has done very well in the wake. Incidentally, all of those claims have enormous amounts of supporting documentation, though it took us a few years to get it. I can point you in the right direction if you want to dig in.
As for your claim that “corporate corruption has decreased,” with respect, I must tell that is simply not true. A simple Google search can help you with this, but here’s an article for starters:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iraq-10-years-on-how-baghdad-became-a-city-of-corruption-8520038.html
If you want more detail, I can provide you with a voluminous reading list about corruption in Iraq, past and present. And let’s not even mention the $9B in US cash sent by the US on pallets in C-130 transports that just went missing, never to be found. No kidding, $9 billion dollars in cash. Do you know how hard that is to hide?
A last point on this issue before moving on to the NSA. You ask:
“Is your responsibility to tell us that the war was good or bad,or [sic] is it to present the facts and let us decide?”
As a matter of fact, in the case of this class discussion, it is neither; but that’s not really what you’re asking. You’re asking about the responsibility of a journalist reporting on the war and its aftermath, and that’s a marvelous question.
No one – that is, no one – worth his/her salt can commit journalism by simply listing facts. One must gather facts as best one can, confirm them as best one can, and assemble them into a meaningful story. This inevitably means drawing conclusions.
The important point you are emphasizing is that one’s conclusions must be defensible. That means you better know what you are talking about and be able to back it up. And if you get something wrong, admit it. Fast. And when you get it right only to be met with howls of complaint, stand your ground…and maybe do even more reporting because those howls likely mean you’re on to something.
You may have noticed that television journalism has veered from this principle. We have all manner of pronouncements from on high by people about whom you are right to be suspicious, just as you are absolutely right to challenge my assertions. I hope you apply the same intellectual scalpel to the talking heads on TV. I know a lot of them. You’d be amazed at how they can offer strong opinions on subjects about which they know very little.
Now on to the NSA. You write:
“Sir – you said the last two administrations have lied about NSA’s collection.”
I’m not sure if you’re challenging this assertion on its face but – just for the sake of clarity – here’s a good example of what I meant:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsmo0hUWJ08
DNI James Clapper in stone-cold lie before the Senate Intelligence Committee, no less. Interestingly, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Or), who asked the question in the link above, knew the answer was a lie when he heard it but was constrained from pointing this out because of secrecy laws. In fact, he asked the question just to get the lie on the record.
But what about your larger question…can the US National Security State (which extends beyond the NSA) really scoop up millions and millions of “electronic transactions?” Really? It sure can.
Now, you are correct in challenging my assertion that they DO collect everything. In truth, we don’t really know the precise extent of the sweep because we can’t get a look inside the NSA’s files. Nor can we know the current level of their growing capacity to sweep data.
You have a fair point, so what DO we know?
We know this from several whistleblowers and from the NSA’s own documents they have been collecting trillions of transmissions and at least aspire (in their own documented words) to collect ALL electronic transmissions. Hard to believe, but there you are: the desire and rising potential for Total Information Awareness.
We know too that they have established back doors in the communications company’s computers: Google, Facebook, Verizon, AT&T, and so on. We also know NSA operators have used this ability to spy on girlfriends, rivals, and politicians of all stripes, though they promise not to do it again. Purportedly, the NSA intends to hold all of these searchable data for a minimum of 5 years and is in the process of building several massive centers for that purpose.
All of the above claims are rather nicely documented and easily found through a simple web search.
Of course, we also know it’s pretty much impossible to sort through all the information they’re gathering. So, per the NSA’s own documents, they have established algorithms to help them find patterns they deem significant. This is accomplished at top level by a search of metadata. Then, once they strike a hotspot, they can then dive more deeply into the stored information and expand their sweep to whomever the target(s) may have touched.
For the most part, this means that, although they’ve collected your information, they don’t care about it or you. Unless, of course, you pop out for some reason or another. Ask the people who have mistakenly been put on the no-fly list how much fun that can be. FYI the best figure for the number I can find for the people on that list is 400K and growing.
That’s a lot of terrorists, wouldn’t you say?
Now, why is this of such great concern?? Why are so many people up in arms?
First, it seems on its face to be an infringement of our 4th amendment rights, though I assume today’s Supreme Court will disagree by a 5-4 vote. Second, the government can use the information it collects for many things beyond finding potential terrorists, for instance, impeding political opposition. Third, by all verifiable accounts, this massive surveillance hasn’t been very useful in finding real national security threats, while it has cost taxpayers an astounding amount of money. [We don’t know exactly how much money, of course, because that too is a secret from the American people.]
Finally, I’d like to thank you again for your challenging questions. It’s always fun to pressure test my thinking. And my apologies for the prolix response, but you’re tough and I wanted to be thorough.
To save you some search time, below is a little information about surveillance. Follow the breadcrumbs and you’ll find lots more. Incidentally, I find reading some of the actual Snowden documents to be quite helpful in understanding the extent of these programs.
I feel compelled to point out that most of what we know about this area comes from whistleblowers, some of whom have had their careers destroyed, some of whom are imprisoned, and the most notorious of whom is in exile in Russia. For the crime of telling Americans what is being done to them and in their name, they have been called traitors. I think they’re heroes. But that of course is just my opinion. You should draw your own.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfS2Op9l3nk
http://www.propublica.org/article/nsa-data-collection-faq
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/31/nsa-top-secret-program-online-data
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/nsa-infiltrates-links-to-yahoo-google-data-centers-worldwide-snowden-documents-say/2013/10/30/e51d661e-4166-11e3-8b74-d89d714ca4dd_story.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/30/nsa-americans-metadata-year-documents
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/09/nsa-loophole-warrantless-searches-email-calls